Thursday’s free football acca brings together five Europa League selections at combined odds of 6.52. Besiktas are backed in the double chance against Marseille, Juventus are fancied to see off NEC Nijmegen, goals are expected in both Lillestrom vs Torreense and Viktoria Plzen vs Union Saint-Gilloise, and Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth is tipped for both teams to score.
prediction and reasoning
Besiktas or Draw in Besiktas vs Marseille — Besiktas arrive on three straight wins, following a 3-0 success over Erzurum BB with a 2-1 derby victory against Fenerbahce, and Besiktas Park has been a fortress all season. Marseille have lost their last two in Ligue 1, going down 0-1 at Rennes after a 2-3 reverse against Paris FC, and their away form has been the weak point of an otherwise talented squad. The model gives Besiktas a 56% win probability with the draw at 23% and Marseille down at 21%, so the double chance at 1.25 covers the two most likely outcomes in Istanbul.
Juventus to Win — Juventus were beaten 3-2 by Sassuolo last time out and drew 1-1 with AC Milan before that, so they will be desperate to respond in front of their own crowd. NEC Nijmegen come in on the back of a 0-3 hammering at Cambuur and a 2-2 draw with Excelsior, and the Dutch side are making their first league-phase appearance after dropping out of Champions League qualifying. The market prices Juventus as short as 1.18, and with the model putting them at 53% against NEC’s 23%, the straight home win at 1.20 is the safest route through this leg.
Over 2.5 Goals in Lillestrom vs Torreense — Lillestrom have found their rhythm with back-to-back wins, beating Valerenga 2-0 after a 2-1 success at Brann, and they have been aggressive at Arasen all season. Torreense travel from Portugal after a 2-0 win over Benfica B and a goalless draw with Leixoes, and the visitors have shown they will attack rather than sit deep. With both clubs making their league-phase debuts and neither defence looking convincing, the 1.61 on three or more goals is a fair reflection of a game expected to open up.
Over 2.5 Goals in Viktoria Plzen vs Union Saint-Gilloise — Plzen have scored 10 goals in their last five matches, having come through a playoff tie against Red Star Belgrade to reach the league phase. Union Saint-Gilloise arrive as Belgian Pro League leaders with 19 goals already and have scored at least twice in four of their last five outings, with forward Relebohile Mofokeng finding the net twice in three games. The visitors dropped into this competition after losing a Champions League playoff, so they will look to make a statement, and 1.72 for three or more goals looks generous given the attacking quality on show.
Both Teams to Score in Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth — Bournemouth begin their first-ever European campaign at the Reale Arena, while Sociedad are back on the continental stage after missing out last term. Sociedad have won just once in seven home games (three draws, three defeats), and Bournemouth have won only one match in all competitions this season, drawing three and losing one. Both meetings in 2025 ended level, and with two attack-minded sides finding clean sheets hard to come by, the 1.57 on both teams scoring is the value call.
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