Free Football Acca, Sunday 20 September

prediction and reasoning

Man City to win vs Sunderland — Manchester City have won six straight in all competitions under Enzo Maresca and sit second in the Premier League on 12 points, having scored eight goals and conceded just two in the league. Sunderland are 14th on four points with five conceded, and history is firmly against them: they have never won away at City in the Premier League in 14 attempts, with City unbeaten in all 14 of those home meetings. The Black Cats have scored in each of their last eight away league matches, but with Reinildo suspended and City's defence in mean mood, the 1.33 on a home win is a fair reflection of the gulf in class.

Draw or Lille in Nice vs Lille — Nice are in a rut: 18th in Ligue 1 with just two points from four games, one goal in their last five, and only two wins in their last 15 fixtures. Lille, by contrast, are fourth and unbeaten with 10 points from four, having won eight of their last 15 and taken four points from trips to Angers and Toulouse. The H2H record also favours the visitors, who drew 0-0 at Nice in April. Nice's home form is respectable, which is why we take the safety of the double chance, and at 1.30 for Lille to avoid defeat the value is clear.

Both Teams to Score in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig — Both sides have started the season with more flair than solidity. Leverkusen are seventh on four points after a 3-2 home defeat to promoted Elversberg, a 4-0 rout of Union Berlin and a 2-2 draw at Augsburg. Leipzig are fifth on six points, having thrashed Hamburg 5-0 at home but lost 3-1 at Werder Bremen and 4-1 at Como in the Champions League. Two attacking teams with defensive question marks point squarely at goals at both ends, and the 1.33 on both teams scoring looks the sensible play.

Elversberg Over 0.5 Goals vs Schalke — Schalke have been stubborn at the back, conceding one or fewer in each of their last five competitive games and holding Bayern to a goalless draw in Munich, but Elversberg have been a revelation since promotion. Vincent Wagner's side sit sixth on six points, have scored eight goals in three league games including a 3-2 win over Leverkusen, and both teams have scored in seven of their last eight matches. With Maurice Krattenmacher already on three league goals, the 1.28 on the visitors finding the net is a solid leg.

Hoffenheim to win at Paderborn — Paderborn have found life in the Bundesliga brutal: they are yet to score in three league games, sit 15th on a single point, and have been beaten by Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund. Hoffenheim are 13th on three points but arrive on the back of a 2-1 win over Stuttgart in which Adam Hlozek scored twice, and Christian Ilzer's side are averaging two goals a game across the season with a fully fit squad to choose from. Against a side that cannot find the net, the 1.72 on an away win stands out.

Both Teams to Score in Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid — The Madrid derby has a habit of delivering goals at both ends: both teams were on the scoresheet in 13 of the last 14 meetings. Atletico are fourth with 14 goals in six games and unbeaten at home this season, while Real Madrid are second with 17 goals and have won nine of their last 10 in all competitions. Kylian Mbappe is on a three-game scoring run with eight goals already, and with Atletico's Julian Alvarez and Alexander Sorloth both back fit, the 1.50 on both teams scoring is the standout selection.

other tips

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