Free Football Acca, Sunday 27 September

prediction and reasoning

Denmark vs Wales — Denmark & Over 1.5 Goals — Denmark were beaten 3-2 in Oslo on Thursday but produced plenty going forward, registering eight shots on target and scoring through Mikkel Damsgaard and Rasmus Højlund. Back at Parken under Brian Riemer, the Danes are a far tougher proposition, with Højlund the leading scorer of recent squads and Damsgaard pulling the strings. Wales arrive off a 1-0 defeat in Lisbon in which they failed to register a single shot on goal, and Craig Bellamy's side have found these away days against the stronger League A nations difficult. Combining a Denmark win with over 1.5 goals prices in the most likely scorelines at 1.53.

Serbia vs Netherlands — Netherlands & Over 1.5 Goals — The Netherlands began the Xavi era with a 1-1 draw against Germany in Amsterdam, showing enough control in possession to suggest the new manager's ideas are taking hold. Serbia, by contrast, are reeling from a last-minute home defeat to Greece and go into this one short of confidence in Group A2. The Oranje carry the greater individual quality through the spine of the team and have the attacking options to punish a fragile Serbian defence at the Rajko Mitic. Rather than take the short away win on its own, adding over 1.5 goals at 1.55 covers the likelihood of an open game.

Germany vs Greece — Germany & Over 1.5 Goals — Germany were held to a 1-1 draw by the Netherlands in Amsterdam but showed enough going forward to suggest they will be a handful on home soil, and a visit from Greece is a fixture the four-time World Cup winners should dominate at both ends of the pitch. Greece arrive on a high after their late win in Serbia, yet that match also exposed their defensive vulnerability, and the step up in class here is significant. Germany will expect to score at least twice against a side they have traditionally handled, making the home win and over 1.5 goals at 1.52 a solid combination.

Norway vs Portugal — Both Teams to Score — This is the standout fixture of the day and the one most likely to produce goals at both ends. Norway beat Denmark 3-2 in their opener, with Erling Haaland leading a direct and dangerous attack, while Portugal edged Wales 1-0 and remain one of the most technically gifted sides in Europe. Both teams carry genuine goalscoring threats and neither defence looked watertight in the opening round. With two attacking teams and little between them on current form, both teams to score at 1.40 is the safest way to cap the acca.

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