Thursday's free football acca brings together five selections from the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round second legs. St Gallen are backed to score twice at home against Sheriff after winning 3-1 in Tiraspol, while Motherwell are tipped to win a half at Fir Park following their dominant second-half showing in Helsinki. RFS and Gent both combine double chance cover with over 1.5 goals as they defend leads at home, and Shkendija vs Hibernian is expected to produce goals at both ends as the Macedonian side chase a two-goal deficit. Combined odds of 6.77.
prediction and reasoning
St Gallen Over 1.5 Team Total Goals — St Gallen have won every competitive game this season, scoring 2+ in all four: 3-2 at Vaduz and 2-1 vs Zürich in the Swiss Super League, then 3-1 at Sheriff in the first leg. Sheriff, meanwhile, have conceded 9 goals in their last three European matches (0-5 and 0-1 vs Maccabi Tel Aviv, then 1-3 at home to St Gallen). Even a managed 2-0 or 3-1 win at the Kybunpark covers this selection, with the only real risk a full-scale rotation with the tie nearly won.
Motherwell to Win Either Half — Motherwell came away from Helsinki with a 1-1 draw after dominating the second half: they hit the woodwork twice and took the lead through a Liam Maswanhise penalty before Teemu Pukki equalised for HJK. The Steelmen are unbeaten this season (2-1 at Hibs, 0-0 vs Falkirk) and expect a near-sellout at Fir Park, with Johnny Koutroumbis returning from injury. HJK are defensively solid and have conceded just once in three European ties, but Motherwell should control the majority of the 90 minutes on home turf.
RFS or Draw + Over 1.5 Goals — RFS trail 2-0 after losing the first leg at Jablonec and must attack from the first whistle at home in Riga. The Latvian champions are formidable at the LNK Stadions, and with Jablonec happy to sit on their lead, the game should be open. The double chance covers the draw as insurance while RFS push for the goals they need, and over 1.5 looks highly likely given the home side's desperation and Jablonec's willingness to counter.
Both Teams to Score — Shkendija vs Hibernian — Hibernian hold a 2-1 lead from the first leg in Edinburgh, which means Shkendija need two goals in Skopje. Their coach has already promised an all-out attack, saying "one goal and we equalise", which should open the game up at the Toše Proeski Arena. Hibs have scored in all three European matches this season (2-0, 4-1, 2-1) but have also conceded in two of them, and the local previews are predicting a goals feast in the Macedonian capital.
Gent or Draw + Over 1.5 Goals — Gent take a 1-0 lead back to the Ghelamco Arena after a disciplined display in Gothenburg, and they opened their Belgian Pro League campaign with a 2-0 win. IFK Göteborg have the leakiest defence among the top half of the Allsvenskan, with 35 goals conceded in 16 games, and they must chase the tie in Belgium. The double chance makes Gent or a draw a near-certainty, while over 1.5 gets plenty of help from a Göteborg side that has to come out and play.
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