Mega Acca, Saturday 19 September

prediction and reasoning

Arsenal to Win at Brighton — Arsenal have won all four Premier League games this season and boast the division's meanest defence, conceding just once, while stretching their 100% record to seven matches across all competitions. They are unbeaten in seven head-to-heads with Brighton (five wins, two draws) and have the quality in Saka and Odegaard to punish a Seagulls side still without Mitoma, Minteh and Hinshelwood. Brighton sit fifth and are the league's top scorers, so this is a genuine test, but 1.70 on the Gunners' run — with early payout protection — is the value call.

Over 2.5 Goals in Everton vs Ipswich — Ipswich have been involved in high-scoring games all season, conceding ten goals in four league matches without keeping a clean sheet and shipping four at home to Arsenal in the cup in midweek. Everton are unbeaten and have scored in each of their home outings at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, carrying a genuine threat through their front line. The two sides are level on six points, and with Ipswich's defence leaking goals at a steady rate, the 1.72 on three or more goals looks a fair price.

Nottingham Forest to Win — Coventry arrive at the City Ground rock-bottom of the Premier League with no points, no goals and ten conceded from four matches, and they are missing striker Haji Wright. Forest have found their feet under Oliver Glasner, beating Aston Villa 2-1 last weekend and stretching an unbeaten run to three, and they have won the last six competitive home meetings between the clubs. At 1.61, with early payout protection, Forest look well placed to make it back-to-back league wins.

Both Teams to Score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg — Frankfurt have scored at least twice in five of their last six matches and have kept a clean sheet in none of their three league games, so Freiburg — the surprise Bundesliga leaders, unbeaten and scoring four or more in four of their last five — should find the net at the Deutsche Bank Park. Adi Hutter's side, meanwhile, have scored in virtually every home outing, so the hosts look unlikely to be kept out either. With both attacks in form, 1.44 on both teams scoring is the safest foundation on the card.

Over 2.5 Goals in Hamburg vs Cologne — Hamburg have endured a nightmare start, conceding 12 goals in three matches — the worst defensive record in the division — including back-to-back 5-0 defeats to Mainz and RB Leipzig, and they are yet to score a single goal. Cologne have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last five competitive outings and won this exact fixture 4-1 last season, so the visitors should create chances against a porous backline. At 1.61, three or more goals is a fair reflection of a game involving the leakiest defence in the league.

Over 2.5 Goals in Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund — Both teams have scored in each of Stuttgart's last four matches, and Sebastian Hoeness's side have found the net in every home game while shipping goals at the other end. Dortmund arrive unbeaten on nine points and scoring freely, with Serhou Guirassy contributing two assists in his last three, though they were made to wait for their goals in the 3-0 win over Paderborn. With Stuttgart's depleted squad forced to attack and BVB's front line in form, the 1.36 on three or more goals is short but well-founded.

Lazio to Win at Venezia — Venezia are bottom of Serie A without a point, have lost their last five matches in all competitions and shipped four at home to Fiorentina last time out, keeping no clean sheet in six. Lazio have made an excellent start under Gennaro Gattuso, taking ten points from four games and winning four of their last five on the road, while remaining unbeaten in their last three Serie A visits to the Penzo. At 1.90, with early payout protection, Lazio are the standout value on the card.

Both Teams to Score in Sevilla vs Barcelona — The last five meetings between these two have all featured goals at both ends, and Sevilla arrive in fine form with four wins from six La Liga games, scoring freely at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan. Barcelona are flying — six wins from six, 33 goals in seven competitive matches and a 7-2 midweek win — and Raphinha is the league's leading scorer, but Hansi Flick's side have conceded on their travels. With both sides in scoring touch, 1.61 on both teams scoring is the value call.

other tips

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