Mega Acca, Monday 14 September

prediction and reasoning

Como Over 1.5 Team Goals — Como sit fourth in Serie A after three rounds despite playing all three games away from home, and they arrive on a high after a 4-1 Champions League debut win over RB Leipzig. Fabregas's side kept 19 clean sheets last season and have a near fully-fit squad, with Jayden Addai their only absentee. Parma have taken one point and scored once in three league games, are without Hans Nicolussi Caviglia and have conceded four, so the hosts should score at least twice at the Sinigaglia.

Draw or AS Roma & Over 1.5 Goals — Roma have won all three Serie A games this season and are on an eight-match winning league run stretching back to last season, sitting top with 10 goals scored and only one conceded. Away from home they have kept three clean sheets in their last four league games and are unbeaten in their last five visits to Turin, while Torino have lost their last two home games and have not kept a clean sheet in four. The double chance covers the draw and over 1.5 goals has landed in four of the last five meetings.

FC Midtjylland to Win — Midtjylland are unbeaten in the Superliga with four wins and three draws, sit third on 15 points with 12 goals scored, and Friday Etim has three goals already. Brondby have lost back-to-back league games, including a 3-0 home defeat to Randers, and have conceded 10 in seven matches. At the MCH Arena the hosts have been the stronger side and should edge a high-scoring derby at 1.70.

Djurgardens or Draw & Over 1.5 Goals — Djurgarden have won their last four and sit third in the Allsvenskan with 38 points, losing just two of their last ten while averaging 2.1 goals a game and conceding only 0.4. GAIS drew 0-0 with Hacken last time out and have scored 25 in 20 games, so they rarely collapse. The double chance insures the home side while over 1.5 goals should arrive comfortably.

Sirius to Win — Sirius responded to back-to-back home defeats with a 1-0 win at Vasteras, while Degerfors have lost successive away games. Sirius have dominated this fixture with six wins in nine meetings, including a 3-0 victory at Stora Valla last time out, so the home win at 1.36 is a solid leg.

Bodo/Glimt Over 2.5 Team Goals — The models make Bodo/Glimt a 77 per cent favourite, and the most likely scoreline is 3-0. Sandefjord's defence has been among Norway's leakiest and the champions score heavily at Aspmyra, with the team-total market pricing a comfortable home win. Three or more Bodo goals is well within reach.

Draw or Fenerbahce & Over 2.5 Goals — Fenerbahce have won all nine previous meetings with Gaziantep, but they arrive off a 2-1 home defeat to Besiktas and a 1-1 Champions League draw with Roma. Gaziantep are in decent form after a 4-2 win at Goztepe with Kacper Kozlowski scoring twice. The double chance covers a tight trip to Gaziantep Stadyumu while both sides' attacking numbers point to over 2.5 goals at 1.90.

Draw or Estrela — Rio Ave have lost back-to-back league games, including a 4-0 hammering at Santa Clara, and have mustered two shots on target in each of their last two matches. Estrela beat Braga 2-1 last time out with Ianis Stoica scoring twice, and although Rio Ave have won the last three head-to-heads, the double chance on the in-form visitors at 1.44 carries value.

Over 2.5 Goals in Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax — Reserve-team fixtures in the Eerste Divisie are routinely open, and the model's most likely scorelines here are 2-1 and 1-2, with a 1-1 the likeliest draw. Two front-foot academy sides at Zoudenbalch make over 2.5 goals at 1.36 a strong leg.

Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score in Inter vs Udinese — Inter have scored two or more at home to Udinese in five of their last six Serie A meetings and are unbeaten in 14 league games at the Meazza, while four of the last five meetings have gone over 2.5. Udinese have scored in four of their last five against Inter and have kept no clean sheet in four games. With both sides finding the net, this bet builder at 2.25 is a strong leg.

Both Teams to Score in Leeds vs Newcastle — Both teams scored in eight of Newcastle's last ten matches and the last meeting produced a seven-goal thriller, while Leeds have opened the scoring in five of their last six. Leeds are unbeaten in the Premier League with the division's second-best defensive record, but Newcastle's forward quality means the visitors should contribute in a Monday night game at Elland Road. BTTS at 1.61.

Both Teams to Score in Villarreal vs Real Betis — Five of the last six meetings between these sides went over 2.5 goals and Betis have scored in every competitive game this season, winning four of five including a 1-0 win over Real Madrid and a 3-2 Champions League victory at Lille. Villarreal have both scored and conceded at least twice in four of their five matches, and the visitors have scored in seven of the last eight head-to-heads. BTTS at 1.50 fits both profiles.

Draw or Maritimo — Moreirense have lost back-to-back league games, including a 4-0 home humbling by Benfica in which they managed a single shot on target and 26 per cent possession. Maritimo have also lost two in a row but won the most recent head-to-head 1-0 at this ground, and the double chance at 1.44 covers both a repeat and a draw.

Braga Over 1.5 Team Goals — Braga average 62 per cent possession at the Estadio Municipal and have scored six goals in four league games, with Pau Victor already on six for the season. Estoril are winless with two points and only two goals scored all campaign, conceding seven and managing a blank in their last match against Arouca. The hosts' control and Estoril's poor defence point to two or more Braga goals at 1.44.

other tips

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