Free Football Acca, Saturday 19 September

prediction and reasoning

Both Teams to Score in Angers vs Troyes — Angers and Troyes arrive with mirror-image records after four rounds, each on four points and four goals scored, and neither has looked secure at the back. Angers have managed just one clean sheet this season and were beaten at home by both Lille and Rennes, while Troyes have shipped nine goals in four — including six at Strasbourg — and have lost three of their last five on the road. ESTAC carry a real attacking threat through their front line, and with the hosts conceding at a steady rate at the Kopa, the 1.66 on both teams scoring is a fair reflection of two defences still finding their feet.

Both Teams to Score in Le Mans vs Lorient — Le Mans have scored and conceded in each of their four league games this season, a run that includes a 2-2 draw with Lens last time out, and six of their last seven matches have seen both teams find the net. Patrick Videira's side are unbeaten in 17 home games and have scored four times at the Stade Marie-Marvingt, with Louis Mafouta already on three goals for the campaign. Lorient arrive unbeaten on the road since April and drew 2-2 with Toulouse, so the visitors carry the attacking quality to contribute, and the 1.66 on both teams scoring is the value call.

Draw or Mainz in Borussia M'gladbach vs Mainz — Mönchengladbach are in freefall, bottom-three on zero points after three heavy defeats: 0-3 at Leipzig, a 3-4 loss to promoted Elversberg and a 0-5 collapse at Freiburg. They have conceded 12 goals and scored just three, shipping 2.5 goals on average at Borussia-Park. Mainz arrive unbeaten in five, having thrashed Hamburg 5-0, and are typically well-organised travellers under Urs Fischer. Gladbach have not beaten Mainz at home in the last five meetings here — three draws and two Mainz wins — making 1.36 for the visitors to avoid defeat look like solid value.

Over 2.5 Goals in Roma vs Inter — Serie A's top two meet at the Olimpico with the division's two most potent attacks on show: Roma have scored 12 goals in four games, Inter 13. Both are unbeaten and level on 12 points, and Inter have found the net in 14 straight league matches. The visitors' defence has wobbled, though — Chivu's side conceded five goals across their last two games and have shipped two or more in three of their last five away fixtures, keeping just one clean sheet in five. With last season's meetings producing a 1-0 and a 5-2, the 1.66 on three or more goals is a fair price.

other tips

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